Mortgage Rates

Heading Toward 6% — Mortgage rates hit a mid-September low of 6.26% and are holding around 6.3%, the lowest we’ve seen in about a year. The drop has already fueled refinancing (up 42% YoY) and purchase applications (up 18%). Many homeowners still enjoy historically low rates, with roughly 8 in 10 holding a rate below 6%, leaving many prospective buyers waiting for the sub‑6% “sweet spot.” According to NAR, if rates reach that level, 5.5 million more households could afford the median-priced home, with about 550,000 likely to buy in the next 12–18 months.

Homes Prices

Starter Homes Surge — The median U.S. home sale price reached $440,004 in August, but starter homes are seeing the most activity. Sales of starter homes are up nearly 4% YoY, even as their median price hit a record $260,508 (up 2.2% YoY). These smaller, more affordable homes are selling faster, while mid- and high-priced homes are moving more slowly. Affordability remains a challenge for some buyers, but strong starter-home demand is clearly driving the current market.

Housing Supply

Mixed Signals in Inventory — Total housing inventory in August reached 1.94 million homes (up 9.7% YoY), giving buyers more options than in 2024. Compared with July, inventory dipped slightly as new listings fell 2.6% YoY. Homes spent a median of 47 days on the market, about a week longer than last year, and only 26.9% sold above asking, signaling softer competition. Still, with 3.3 months of supply, August posted the highest seasonal inventory level in a decade, showing that buyers are benefiting from more choices despite slower listing activity.

Market Activity

A Tale of Two Markets — Existing-home sales in August rose modestly to 4.23 million (+1.7% YoY). But the market looks very different depending on the region: homes are moving quickly in the Midwest and Northeast, while the Sunbelt is cooling amid higher insurance, taxes, and prices. Despite fewer new listings, sellers still outnumber buyers by more than a third, marking one of the largest gaps on record.